Marsha Blackburn holds a double-digit lead in the race for Tennessee governor, according to a new statewide poll released Monday. The Spry Strategies survey of 635 likely voters, taken Oct. 10–16, has Blackburn at 43.5% to 32.0% for Democrat Jerri Green, with independent David Hatley at 11.9% and independent Lauren Pinkston at 1.4%. Ten percent are undecided.
Blackburn’s lead holds everywhere. She leads among women 43.1% to 31.5% and among men 43.9% to 32.5%. She is ahead in East Tennessee (43.2% to 29.6%), Middle Tennessee (44.3% to 32.5%) and West Tennessee (42.3% to 36.1%). Rural voters back her 53.2% to 17.9%, and suburban voters 50.0% to 32.7%. When undecided voters were pushed to choose, more picked Blackburn (25.1%) than Green (18.5%), and 38.6% of likely voters either have no opinion of Green or have never heard of her.
The poll is good news for the whole America First team in Tennessee. President Trump’s job approval in the state stands at 54.1% approve to 44.5% disapprove, and Sen. Bill Hagerty’s at 52.2% to 35.3%. Voters ranked socialism and communism as the most important issue heading into the midterms (28.7%). The margin of error is about ±3.89 points, and 91% of respondents said they are extremely likely to vote.
Tennesseans are already voting. Through the first four days of early voting, 305,844 people had voted early or absentee, 72% more than at the same point in the 2022 governor’s race, according to the Secretary of State’s daily early-voting file. “This November’s ballot includes important federal, state, and local races, as well as three proposed constitutional amendments,” Secretary of State Tre Hargett said.
Early voting continues through Thursday, Oct. 29, and Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Find your early voting site at sos.tn.gov or on the GoVoteTN app.
